Beginner reference

Prediction market glossary

Plain-language definitions for the terms you will see while browsing, placing an order, and following a market through resolution.

Markets and prices

Market: A question with defined outcomes, a trading close time, resolution rules, and a source used to determine the result.
Outcome share: A tradable position tied to one possible result. A winning share is redeemable for $1.00 at resolution; a losing share is redeemable for $0.
Implied probability: A way to read a price as a market estimate. A 42¢ price suggests roughly 42%, but it is a signal—not a guarantee or a calibrated forecast.
Bid: The highest visible price a buyer is currently offering for a share.
Ask: The lowest visible price a seller is currently willing to accept for a share.
Spread: The gap between the best bid and best ask. A wider spread can make entering and exiting more expensive.
Liquidity: How easily shares can be bought or sold near the current price. Thin liquidity can cause partial fills, slippage, or no fill.

Order book: The list of open bids and asks from market participants, organized by price.
Limit order: An instruction to buy no higher than a chosen price or sell no lower than a chosen price. It may fill immediately, later, partially, or not at all.
Market order: An instruction that prioritizes immediate execution against available liquidity. The average fill price can differ from the headline price.
Fill: The part of an order that successfully matched with another participant. An order can be fully or partially filled.
Slippage: The difference between the price you expected and the average price you received, often because available liquidity was limited.
Position: The outcome shares you currently hold after orders fill. Its displayed value can move before you sell or the market resolves.
Maximum loss: The most collateral at risk if the position finishes worthless, excluding any separate network costs. Check the order preview before signing.

Collateral: The asset, commonly USDC, used to fund orders and support payouts for outcome shares.
Wallet: The tool used to connect, hold assets, and approve on-chain actions. Keep its recovery material private.
Network fee: A small payment in SOL for processing a transaction on Solana. It is separate from any trading fee.
Resolution: The process of determining the final market outcome from its published rules and resolution source.
Redemption: Exchanging winning outcome shares for collateral after the market has resolved.
Void: A market state used when the question cannot be resolved as written. The market rules should explain how positions are handled.

Common beginner mix-ups

A market price summarizes current orders and trades. It can be wrong, stale, or based on thin participation.

A midpoint or last trade may be shown as a reference. Buyers usually face the ask and sellers usually face the bid.

Trading can close before the source publishes a final result. Resolution may also be delayed by disputes or missing data.

An estimated position value assumes a price. You need a fill to exit, and open orders can reserve part of your balance.

Follow one hypothetical order from market question to payout, with the cost and risk math shown along the way.