Prices = probabilities

On Norynta, outcome prices are quoted in cents. As a mental model, you can treat the price as the market-implied probability.

We display implied probability on a 0-100% scale, while executable trade prices are constrained to 1-99¢. Winning shares settle at 100¢ ($1.00).

Example: if “YES” is trading at 18¢, the market is pricing “YES” at about an 18% chance. If you think the true chance is higher, you might buy “YES”; if you think it is lower, you might sell “YES” or buy “NO”.

How are prices calculated?

Prices come from the order book and are a function of real-time supply and demand. There are no pre-defined odds.

Initial price

When a market first opens there may be no orders and no meaningful price. The first bids and asks posted by traders (or seeded liquidity) establish an initial price.

Displayed price

For YES/NO markets, Norynta typically displays a midpoint between the best bid and best ask. If the bid-ask spread is wider than 10¢, the midpoint is not shown and the UI falls back to a reference price such as the most recent trade.

Displayed price vs. executable price

Prices come from the order book. The number you see is typically based on the best bid and best ask (often displayed as the midpoint). Your actual fill depends on what’s available: buying usually pays the ask and selling usually receives the bid.

In other words: probability framing can reach 0% or 100%, but limit orders execute in the 1–99¢ range.

Learn more about the order book

Buying and selling

If you buy “YES” at 18¢ and the market resolves “YES”, the gross payout is 100¢ per winning share before fees. If the price moves up to 30¢ before resolution and there is enough liquidity, you may be able to sell before resolution instead of waiting.

Why prices move

Prices change when traders update bids and asks in response to new information. This is why prediction markets can be read as a real-time, crowd-sourced forecast, subject to liquidity and market-quality limits.