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Fed rate decision predictions: the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the target range for the federal funds rate at eight scheduled meetings a year. The next scheduled meeting is October 27–28, 2026. The decision is released in a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28, 2026, followed by the Chair's press conference.

This page lists the open Norynta questions on the Fed's rate decisions: the next meeting where such a question exists, and questions on hikes or cuts over the coming months, each with its current odds and a link to the full question and its settlement rules.

Questions imported from Kalshi or Polymarket settle from the source's official result, which follows the Fed's published statement. Where no Norynta player has forecast yet, the odds shown are the source's and are labelled that way. This is a forecasting game, not financial advice.

Free to play with play credits that have no cash value. Not betting, not financial advice.

Meeting decisions

Questions on what the FOMC decides at a specific meeting.

Rate path

Hikes or cuts by a given date, soonest to close first.

How these questions settle

Each question settles from its source's official result, based on the Federal Reserve's published FOMC statement. Rules and sources are on each question's page.

“Crowd” odds come from trades by Norynta players. “Odds from Kalshi/Polymarket” means no Norynta player has forecast that question yet, so its price is the source market's.

Questions

Fed decision in Oct 2026: Fed maintains rate?
No Norynta player has forecast this yet, so the price is the one it opened at from Kalshi: Yes 87%. Open the question to make the first forecast and to read its settlement rules. Play money only; this is not a prediction by Norynta.
Fed decision in Oct 2026: Hike 25bps?
No Norynta player has forecast this yet, so the price is the one it opened at from Kalshi: Yes 14%. Open the question to make the first forecast and to read its settlement rules. Play money only; this is not a prediction by Norynta.
When is the next Fed rate decision?
The next scheduled meeting is October 27–28, 2026. The decision is released in a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28, 2026, followed by the Chair's press conference.
What does the FOMC decide?
The FOMC sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. It can raise the range (a hike), lower it (a cut) or leave it unchanged, usually in steps of 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
How do these questions settle?
Imported questions settle from Kalshi's or Polymarket's official settlement of the same market, which follows the Federal Reserve's published statement. The exact rule is on each question's page. Settled questions appear under Results with the outcome.
Why do some questions say “odds from Polymarket” or “odds from Kalshi”?
Many questions here are imported from Kalshi or Polymarket. They open at the source's price, and until a Norynta player forecasts, that is the only price there is, so it is labelled as the source's odds rather than a Norynta crowd forecast. Once players forecast, the price reflects their trades and is labelled “Crowd”.
Is this real money or betting?
No. Norynta is a free forecasting game that uses play credits only. There are no deposits, no withdrawals and nothing to cash out; credits have no cash value. The odds show what forecasters on Norynta (or, before anyone has forecast, the source market) currently price, not a prediction by Norynta.