How accurate is the crowd?
Every resolved market is scored on the price the crowd set just before the answer was known. We publish the result whether it flatters us or not.
The track record appears here once markets that traded on Norynta start resolving.
Methodology and data
Last market-maker price before resolution, multi-outcome Brier score (0 is perfect); baseline assigns equal probability to every outcome; voided events excluded.
The same numbers are available as JSON at /api/play/v1/accuracy, and live probabilities for open markets at /api/play/v1/markets/open. Both are free to reuse with attribution. Play credits have no cash value.