Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The announcement date controls, regardless of when the reduction takes effect. Announcements outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count. Each deadline is evaluated separately. A qualifying announcement may cause multiple markets to resolve to Yes. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.