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San Francisco high temperature forecast for tomorrow

How hot will it get in San Francisco tomorrow? Each day Norynta opens a question on the highest temperature recorded at the National Weather Service station KSFO (SFO). The four temperature ranges are centred on the official NWS forecast high, so equal odds would put 25% on each; where the crowd leans away from that tells you whether forecasters expect the day to run hotter or cooler than the forecast. Below: the live odds, the exact settlement rule, and every recent day scored against the observed high.

Last 9 days: the NWS forecast high was within ±1°F on 3 of 9 days. Players: no forecasts yet — be the first. See the record

Live question · Tuesday, October 20

How hot will San Francisco get on Tuesday, October 20?

Make your call: tap a range. No account needed.

Forecasts close Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 AM UTC

No forecasts yet: every range opens at equal odds. Be the first.

Free play credits · no real money · settled automaticallyFull question, chart & your own probability →

Also open

How it settles

Settles to the range containing the highest air temperature reported by NWS station KSFO (SFO) during the local calendar day (America/Los_Angeles), converted to °F and rounded to the nearest whole degree. Trading closes when the day begins; the result is read once the day's observations are final and can be challenged for a few hours. If fewer than 18 observations are published, the question is voided and credits refunded.

Official source: NOAA / National Weather Service observations, station KSFO (SFO)

Track record

Can you beat the NWS forecast?

3/9 days the NWS forecast high was within ±1°F

The middle ranges are built around the National Weather Service forecast high, so the forecast alone points at them. Spot the days it misses by 2°F or more and you beat it.

Make your call
DayResultNWS forecastPlayers
Sunday, October 18Under 66°F (64°F)NWS 68°F · off by 4°F (cooler)No forecasts yet
Saturday, October 1782–83°F (82°F)NWS 82°F · spot onNo forecasts yet
Friday, October 1684–85°F (84°F)NWS 86°F · off by 2°F (cooler)No forecasts yet
Thursday, October 1583–84°F (84°F)NWS 83°F · off by 1°F (warmer)No forecasts yet
Wednesday, October 1476°F or higher (76°F)NWS 74°F · off by 2°F (warmer)No forecasts yet
Tuesday, October 1371°F or higher (74°F)NWS 69°F · off by 5°F (warmer)No forecasts yet
Monday, October 1270°F or higher (70°F)NWS 68°F · off by 2°F (warmer)No forecasts yet
Sunday, October 1164–65°F (65°F)NWS 64°F · off by 1°F (warmer)No forecasts yet
Saturday, October 1065°F or higher (65°F)NWS 63°F · off by 2°F (warmer)No forecasts yet

Voided questions are left out. Site-wide scoring is on How accurate is the crowd?

Questions

How hot will it get in San Francisco tomorrow?
For Tuesday, October 20, nobody has forecast yet, so the ranges still sit at their opening odds (Under 65°F: 25%; 65–66°F: 25%; 67–68°F: 25%; 69°F or higher: 25%). Make the first forecast on the live card; the odds move as people forecast.
How accurate is the crowd?
Not measured yet: none of the last 9 settled days had player forecasts, so there is no crowd score to report. Meanwhile, over the last 9 settled days, the NWS forecast high was within ±1°F on 3 of 9 days. Every forecast question is scored with a Brier score as soon as it resolves.
Where is the San Francisco temperature measured?
At the National Weather Service station KSFO (SFO). The question uses the maximum of that station's observations published at api.weather.gov for the local calendar day, converted from °C to °F and rounded to the nearest whole degree.
How are the temperature ranges set?
They are centred on the National Weather Service forecast high when the question opens: below forecast−2°F, forecast−2 to forecast−1, forecast to forecast+1, and forecast+2°F or higher. If the official forecast were perfectly calibrated, each range would be roughly equally likely.
Is this real money or betting?
No. Norynta uses free play credits only. There are no deposits, no withdrawals and nothing to cash out; the point is to see how good your forecasts are and how the crowd compares with official data.