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How many major earthquakes this week? Live M6+ forecast

The world averages roughly 140 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater a year, about 2.7 a week, but the weekly count swings a lot. Each week Norynta asks how many M6+ quakes the U.S. Geological Survey catalog will list: 0 or 1, exactly 2, exactly 3, or 4 or more. Nobody can predict individual earthquakes; this is a forecast of the weekly count, settled from official USGS data and scored openly below.

Live question · Week of Monday, October 26

How many magnitude 6+ earthquakes will strike worldwide the week of Monday, October 26?

Make your call: tap a range. No account needed.

Forecasts close Mon, Oct 26, 12:00 AM UTC

No forecasts yet: every range opens at equal odds. Be the first.

Free play credits · no real money · settled automaticallyFull question, chart & your own probability →

How it settles

Settles to the number of earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater (USGS preferred magnitude, rounded to one decimal) anywhere in the world with an origin time from Monday 00:00 UTC to Sunday 23:59:59 UTC, as listed in the USGS ComCat catalog 24 hours after the week ends. Only events of type "earthquake" count; later revisions are not applied.

Official source: U.S. Geological Survey ComCat earthquake catalog

Track record

Settled questions appear here, scored, as soon as they resolve.

Questions

How many magnitude 6+ earthquakes will there be this week?
For Week of Monday, October 26, nobody has forecast yet, so the ranges still sit at their opening odds (0 or 1: 25%; Exactly 2: 25%; Exactly 3: 25%; 4 or more: 25%). Make the first forecast on the live card; the odds move as people forecast.
How accurate is the crowd?
Every settled question is scored here with a Brier score against equal odds as soon as it resolves. The record for this question is just starting.
Can anyone predict earthquakes?
No one can predict when or where a specific earthquake will strike. What can be forecast is how often they happen: worldwide M6+ counts follow a fairly stable long-run rate, and this question asks the crowd to price the week's count around it.
Which earthquakes count?
Events of type "earthquake" in the USGS ComCat catalog with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or more (rounded to one decimal, so 5.95 counts) and an origin time inside the Monday-to-Sunday UTC week.
Is this real money or betting?
No. Norynta uses free play credits only. There are no deposits, no withdrawals and nothing to cash out; the point is to see how good your forecasts are and how the crowd compares with official data.