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Bitcoin price prediction for today and tomorrow

Every day Norynta asks one question: in which price range will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close on Coinbase Exchange at 00:00 UTC? The ranges are set around the price when the question opens, so a well-calibrated crowd puts roughly a quarter on each. Below are the crowd's live probabilities, the exact rule used to settle the answer, and every recent day scored against what BTC actually did. It is a forecast, not financial advice, and it uses play money only.

Last 4 days: Bitcoin closed within one range of its opening price on 4 of 4 days. Players: no forecasts yet — be the first. See the record

Live question · Tuesday, October 20

Where will Bitcoin close on Tuesday, October 20 (UTC)?

Make your call: tap a range. No account needed.

Forecasts close Tue, Oct 20, 12:00 AM UTC

No forecasts yet: every range opens at equal odds. Be the first.

Free play credits · no real money · settled automaticallyFull question, chart & your own probability →

How it settles

Settles to the range containing the close of Coinbase Exchange's public BTC-USD one-day candle for the UTC day: the last trade before 00:00 UTC the next day. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound. Trading closes when the day begins; the result is read 15 minutes after the day ends and can be challenged for a few hours before payout.

Official source: Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD one-day candle (UTC)

Track record

Can you beat “no big move”?

4/4 days Bitcoin closed within one range of its opening price

Assuming no big move means picking one of the two middle ranges, which sit either side of the price when the question opened. It moved more than a range on 0 of 4 days; call those and you beat it.

Make your call
DayResultOpening pricePlayers
Sunday, October 18$81,000 to $83,000 ($82,006.85)Opened ~$81,000 · +1.2%No forecasts yet
Saturday, October 17$80,000 to $82,000 ($81,378.21)Opened ~$82,000 · −0.8%No forecasts yet
Friday, October 16$80,000 to $82,000 ($81,500.04)Opened ~$82,000 · −0.6%No forecasts yet
Thursday, October 15$81,000 to $83,000 ($82,131.46)Opened ~$83,000 · −1.0%No forecasts yet

Voided questions are left out. Site-wide scoring is on How accurate is the crowd?

Questions

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for tomorrow?
For Tuesday, October 20, nobody has forecast yet, so the ranges still sit at their opening odds (Under $80,000: 25%; $80,000 to $82,000: 25%; $82,000 to $84,000: 25%; $84,000 or higher: 25%). Make the first forecast on the live card; the odds move as people forecast.
How accurate is the crowd?
Not measured yet: none of the last 4 settled days had player forecasts, so there is no crowd score to report. Meanwhile, over the last 4 settled days, Bitcoin closed within one range of its opening price on 4 of 4 days. Every forecast question is scored with a Brier score as soon as it resolves.
How are the Bitcoin price ranges chosen?
When a question opens (the day before), Norynta reads the Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD price and builds four ranges around it: two middle ranges about 2% wide each and two open-ended tails. That width makes each range roughly equally likely over the ~48 hours to the close, so the crowd's departures from 25% are the signal.
Which Bitcoin price is used to settle the question?
The close of Coinbase Exchange's public BTC-USD one-day candle for the UTC day, which is the last trade before 00:00 UTC. It is read from api.exchange.coinbase.com 15 minutes after the day ends; later corrections are not applied.
Is this real money or betting?
No. Norynta uses free play credits only. There are no deposits, no withdrawals and nothing to cash out; the point is to see how good your forecasts are and how the crowd compares with official data.