Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, ‘martial law’ shall mean the suspension of civil authority and the imposition of military control over designated regions as declared by the President of the United States or Congress. The Payout Criterion does not include mere designation of military control over a specific property, such as for the opening of a new military base. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.