Polymarket runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Polymarket price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The full rules are on the Polymarket market. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Polymarket market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2026-10-22T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.