Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Abandoning, withdrawing from, or superseding that treaty qualifies only if the UK does not, at the same time, agree to, announce, or state its intention to pursue another arrangement under which Mauritius would become sovereign over Diego Garcia. Changes to payments, the duration or terms of the UK's use of Diego Garcia, security provisions, implementation dates, or other treaty provisions do not qualify if Mauritius would still become sovereign over Diego Garcia. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to inte Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2026-12-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.