Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the UK agrees to or announces a cut or repeal of its digital services tax before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A market resolves to Yes on a UK government announcement that abolishes the digital services tax, reduces its rate, raises either of its revenue thresholds, suspends it, or exempts companies from its scope. There is no minimum size and the measure need not be legislated or in force before the strike date. A rate increase, or a change that only broadens the tax, does not resolve any market. An announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal commitment by the head of government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Announcements with a specified future implementation date Phased implementation announcements, and multi-party agreements to which the UK is a signatory, also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval or adoption Regional or sub-national Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2026-11-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.