Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the U.S. federal government announces commitments totaling at least $15 billion in federal financial assistance toward construction of the Sunnyside Yard deck in New York City before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A commitment requires an enacted project-specific appropriation, a legally binding award, or an executed federal financial-assistance agreement. Disbursement is not required. Proposals and nonbinding statements of support do not qualify. The total includes the amounts expressly committed to deck construction in one or more such instruments, with the same assistance counted only once. Grants and other noncredit assistance count at their stated dollar amount; direct loans and standby credit lines count at committed principal; guarantees and insurance count at the maximum federal amount committed. Loan subsidy costs are not added to principal. State, local and private financing, and assistance for housing or rail work outside deck construction, do not count. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.