Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A purchase means Bitcoin acquired for value and held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including Bitcoin bought with the proceeds of selling other digital assets already held. The announcement must state that the purchase has been made. The following do NOT count: An intended, planned or authorized purchase, including one authorized by legislation or by executive order Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings, or otherwise received rather than bought Exchange-traded products, futures or other derivative exposure Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.