Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control. The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provider to carry out the shutdown, including through a court order. A company-controlled kill switch alone does not qualify. Neither does authority limited to blocking future development or release, or a general power to regulate AI without authority to stop an operating system. The government need not own or physically operate the shutdown mechanism, and the authority need not be used before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917). Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.