Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the number of continuing resolutions for fiscal year 2027 that become law is at least 4 before October 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A continuing resolution is a law providing continuing appropriations for any part of the 12 regular fiscal year 2027 appropriations areas. Each law counts once, however many areas it covers and however long it runs. Counts toward the total: A government-wide continuing resolution One covering only some areas, or only specific programs and activities A full-year continuing resolution One enacted after a lapse in appropriations has begun One enacted as a division of a broader law Does NOT count: A regular fiscal year 2027 appropriations act A supplemental appropriations act Continuing appropriations that do not cover fiscal year 2027 The count ends once all 12 regular fiscal year 2027 appropriations acts are law. A temporary government-wide extension does not end it. If all 12 never become law, the count is final on October 1, 2027. For fiscal year 2025 the applicable number is 3, the last of which funded the remainder of that year. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-10-01T13:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.