Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes. A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. A calendar day is after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 if the calendar date of that day, as used in the Source Agency's climatological records for the Reference Stations, falls after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. The Qualifying Days within that span need not be consecutive, and Qualifying Days occurring outside that span do not affect the determination. The Station Average is calculated for any calendar day as the arithmetic mean of the Daily Minimum Temperatures for all Reference Stations for that calendar day, computed in degrees Fahrenheit and truncated to one decimal place. The Daily Minimum Temperature is the minimum temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit (unless otherwise specified), for a Reference Station for a calendar day, as documented by the Source Agency in its daily or monthly climatolog Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.