Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of scope, and a decision to cancel, shelve or further defer the project does not resolve any market to Yes. Permits, shipper commitments, open-season results and cost estimates do not on their own resolve any market. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, securities filings, earnings calls, investor presentations, verified accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. Rumours, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information and third-party announcements without company confirmation do not qualify. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.