Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2026-12-31T18:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.