Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing another source’s content qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A position is considered Cabinet-level if the President or White House formally designates its holder as a member of the Cabinet or as holding Cabinet rank. Merely attending Cabinet meetings, advising the President, holding the title “Assistant to the President,” or leading an office within the Executive Office of the President does not by itself qualify. The person must have assumed the position; an announced intention to appoint someone does not qualify. Artificial intelligence must be a primary and distinct responsibility of the position. Officials whose responsibil Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.