Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2026-11-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.