Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed. Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify. The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify. The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency. Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925). Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.