Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report is above 25,000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the FY2027 value of HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the first public version of the Fiscal 2027 Mayor’s Management Report; the Preliminary Mayor’s Management Report, separate housing announcements, combined totals including NYCHA PACT units, and subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-09-17T13:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.