Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If Giorgia Meloni leaves (or announces she will leave) as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An announcement that merely acknowledges the scheduled end of Giorgia Meloni's term, such as a statement that she will serve until the end of the legislature, does not count. A formal resignation after which she stays on for current affairs and is reappointed, such as after a general election or to bring about an early election, also does not count. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. The full rules are on the Kalshi market. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.