Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care". Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient. A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation. Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the catastrophic-risk duty-of-care proposal being negotiated by Senators John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.