Kalshi runs a real-money market on this question. Norynta mirrors it with play credits: it opened at the Kalshi price and settles exactly as that market does. Players and a labelled market tracker move the price from there. Think the crowd is wrong? Trade against it.
If the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces the award of an expansion team franchise to Las Vegas after issuance and before February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. An official NBA expansion franchise award specifically naming Las Vegas or its metropolitan area is required, with formal approval by the NBA Board of Governors. The award must occur after market issuance and before the specified date, interpreted as 12:00 AM ET. Future play may begin after that date. Unofficial reporting, preliminary negotiations, selection as a prospective expansion market, stadium approval alone, and conditional awards with unresolved conditions at the deadline do not qualify. Merely choosing a preferred bidder does not qualify without the required franchise award and approval. An award announced before issuance does not count. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the National Basketball Association. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. Resolution: this play-money market resolves to the same result as the official Kalshi market settlement, linked as this market's resolution source. Observation time: the source market's final settlement after trading closes at 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z (UTC). If the source market is voided, cancelled, or its result is unavailable or ambiguous, this market is voided and positions are refunded.
Forecasts and play credits have no cash value. At resolution each winning share pays 1 play credit and your calibration record updates.